Well, here’s the part of blog where I put all my credibility on the line, whatever’s left of it anyway.
And for all those folks who like to take screenshots to “keep the receipts,” no need. I won’t be deleting any posts so this should live on forever.
I’m watching the PAC12 conference media negotiations fairly closely as it potentially has a significant impact on my alma mater, SMU. There’s a chance that the conference will expand by a couple teams and the SMU Mustangs are in the mix for one of those open slots. But if the media deal doesn’t promise enough dollars to the conference’s existing members (Cal, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah) they may start to get wandering eyes toward OTHER conferences providing more money, thereby potentially breaking up the great history and rivalries of the PAC12.
So that’s the context. The PAC12 commissioner needs a big payday from the media partners in order to secure a deal — and the future — of the conference.
ESPN is heavily involved as you would expect, since they are current partners and love having the late games provided by all the Pacific time zone teams. While the vast majority of Saturday football games are played in Eastern and Central time zones, having the west coast is an important piece for ESPN. It’s now just a matter of how much do they actually value it in terms of dollars. After all, the PAC12’s two biggest brands (UCLA and USC) just inked a deal to leave the conference for a massive pay-day in the BIG10 conference. As much as ESPN loves the west coast, it’s now negotiating for a product that isn’t as good as it once was. At least not immediately.
Two other bidders have emerged as players in the negotiations with plans to somehow split the airing of the games with ESPN: Amazon Prime and Apple TV. We know both are investing Billions of dollars to gain rights to produce live sports. Amazon now carries NFL Thursday Night broadcasts and Apple TV has deals in place with Major League Baseball and Major League Soccer.
This is where some of the debate on the split between traditional cable and Network TV (“linear”) versus the streaming services “non-linear” comes into play. Cable and network TV are still deemed more valuable in terms of exposure. Not everyone has streaming TV services and for those who do, not everyone has all the different services. If you pay for Netflix but the game is on Apple TV, well you’re out. You’ll have to subscribe directly to the companies streaming the games.
Also, while internet speeds are high in most larger cities and residents tend to be more technology-friendly, often working in tech or at least using it in their jobs on a regular basis, there are parts of the country where it hasn’t quite caught up to what many of us take for granted every day. Specifically these are some of the college football hotbeds in the deep south, southeast, and “fly-over states” in central U.S.
However, you can’t disregard the trend of people across America cutting the cord and moving to streaming, non-linear services when it comes to tv. In fact, 2022 may be forever known as the tipping point when traditional pay TV (i.e. “cable tv”) dropped below 50% of households in the U.S. You can read the article in Adweek for more details.
In the case of ESPN+, the streaming arm of ESPN network, they continue to grow by double-digits where many other services have slowed pace or even cut back some users. Streaming sports will continue to grow in the US and around the world, making an argument for the value of someone like Amazon or Apple TV or even ESPN+ more viable in the long run.
We all know Amazon is gigantic and ingrained into the fabric of American society. It only makes sense the Amazon Prime TV would start to become more and more ingrained, and even if you only subscribe to Amazon Prime so you can watch other programs, they will load up on ads and promotions for their live football and basketball games once they get the contract. A big percentage of the commercials during Thursday Night Football will be to promote the Saturday slate of PAC12 games. It would be a great opportunity for the PAC12 conference to have football, basketball, and all other sports getting broadcast on Amazon Prime.
But let me make a case for Apple TV for a minute. I think Apple TV’s deal with Major League Soccer is going to be a huge asset for their platform. The World Cup is coming to North America in 2026 and in the most recent World Cup in Qatar the US team was viewed as a young but up-and-coming. I see that trend continuing where their popularity increases with more success, more stars and more household names.
I also see the intensity of the promotion of live soccer games on Apple TV increasing dramatically in the next couple years as Americans start to ramp up for the World Cup. People around the world might also start tuning in regularly to Apple TV to watch the rising brand of MLS. (Important to note here that Apple TV does not own the rights, as far as I know, to broadcast any of the actual World Cup games. This connection is only in the lead-up period to 2026 as America starts to load-up on its soccer fix.)
If you start to put the pieces together you can see where Apple TV is a small slice of the pie right now but has the potential to be a significant streaming partner for the PAC12 networks going forward. I don’t know if I’d hitch the entire wagon to it today, but by 2026 and beyond I think you’re looking at a platform that has a legitimate sports audience.
Anyway, all of this is to support the fact that streaming platforms are not a bad thing for the PAC12 schools or its fans. The technology and the platforms are only going to improve, and we know that innovations usually come from smaller players on the rise rather than giant market leaders.
I think a combination of a few Saturday day/night games on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, etc. will be good for “regular” visibility, but having a bunch of games streaming on ESPN+, Amazon Prime or Apple TV will eventually catch up and reach a large audience with disposable income, which is all the advertisers who ultimately pay for all of this will care about.
In the coming weeks and months we’ll know more as a new PAC12 media deal inches closer. Their current contract runs until 2024, making it imperative to seal a new deal now so they can secure their finances for the next 5 or 6 years, however long the new deal runs.