One thing I’ve learned in all my years of watching free agent athletes sign enormous contracts and watching pro leagues get megabucks from media organizations is to never ever underestimate the overpay.
There’s always one owner who is willing to give more years and/or more dollars, and there’s always one media outlet who believes they can generate enough content (broadcast, streaming, and other web) to make a massive offer in order to secure the deal.
- It only takes one George Steinbrenner, or one Fred Wilpon, who we can thank for “Bobby Bonilla Day” every year.
- It only takes one LIV golf.
- It only takes one desperate Amazon or Hulu or Netflix or TNT exec.
If I’m a P5 conference today, all I need is one network to get fidgety for content inventory and overpay.
Because of this I think the Big 12 and PAC 12 will get much more of a payday in a new media rights deal than the numbers being discussed in various circles online. Some argue that the Big 12’s value without Texas and Oklahoma has been cut in half from around $40 million per school per year to close to $20 million. That’s how much brand value those two school’s brought to the conference. I suspect USC and UCLA did the same to the PAC 12.
I still think they’re gonna get paid and get paid big-time, just as they always do.
Some will say “That’s crazy money for the Manhattan, KS and Lubbock, TX and Stillwater, OK markets,” but it won’t matter — the big 12 schools will have their deal. They may even be able to lure a couple other schools to join them because of a lucrative, long-term payday. Then worry about the next contract when this current one is nearing completion. And you probably won’t have to worry much because SOMEONE will again overpay.
Brett Yormark, the new Big 12 commissioner, understands how to create content, even with a potentially subpar product.
Before coming to the Big 12 this year, he joined Jay-Z’s marketing agency in 2019 as co-CEO of Roc Nation Unified, which handles licensing and branding for some of the biggest name music performers and athletes in the world. This is no accident, folks. The Big 12 hiring committee knew what it was doing when they hired him. They recognized that college sports is above all an entertainment asset and that if packaged correctly it’s worth BILLIONS of dollars.
Before Roc Nation, Yormark spent almost 15 years with the New Jersey / Brooklyn Nets, overseeing the club’s move from New Jersey and construction of the Barclays Center. He was with NASCAR before the Nets, overseeing the $750 million agreement with Nextel Communications for naming rights to the circuit’s top racing series.
He will get creative and offer enough content that a media outlet will be able to book its inventory and sell ad space and sponsorships. He will partner with high-profile entertainers and other sponsors and bring eyes to the tv and clicks to the pages. New fans will come from around the world, not just from Waco, TX and Ames, Iowa. Millions of clicks and downloads will come from China and India and Latin America and Eastern Europe and Africa.
This is not rocket science — it’s marketing in the 21st century. Someone will pay for it.
Consider that “Mr Beast” made over $50 million as a YouTuber in 2021. He has over 100 million subscribers and his videos got 10 billion views. I’m sure Mr. Yormark (and other savvy commissioners) are well aware of what people are watching these days and how entertainment is packaged and delivered.
This is NOT just about Saturday afternoon college football time-slots anymore. If you want to secure your future you have to secure younger viewers and meet them where they are: on YouTube, on TikTok, on Snapchat, in the metaverse, etc.
Yormark was hired for a reason and it wasn’t because of his college football experience.
Is the risk that we end up seeing some bastardized version of the game experience, complete with drone cameras, mic’d up players, and “He Hate Me” jerseys? Maybe. They will get their content from somewhere.
Someone will pay. They always pay.
I’m sure the PAC12 is facing a similar situation right now with their negotiations. They will actually be up first since their contract expires in 2024, which is what made the timing right for USC and UCLA to split for the Big 10. They may have non-traditional suitors looking to pay exorbitant amounts just to get in the game. They will overpay (or they will force another “traditional” outlet to counter and overpay) and the PAC12 will run all the way to the bank.
Maybe the P5 schools who lose out (in the short-term, anyway) are those in the ACC conference. Ironically, they’re the ones with the guaranteed contract with ESPN that pays each school over $30 million per year until 2036. That cushy deal was an insurance policy for many of those schools, and it also guaranteed long-term inventory for ESPN. But if you’re the ACC right now and you see the types of contracts signed by the SEC and Big 10 and likely the PAC 12 and Big 12, aren’t you getting a little itchy to renegotiate and capture some of those new media dollars? Some Mr Beast kind of money. Some entry into new markets and new demographics and new digital worlds and new pocket books. We’ll have to see how that plays out.
So what does all this mean for my SMU Mustangs? I have no idea. Really they’re the only ones I care about in this whole mess. I want them to get into the very best conference and make as much money as they can, enhance their reputation as a world-class university both academically and athletically. I want them to be Stanford. Notre Dame. Michigan. UCLA.
Is that too much to ask? With everything SMU and the City of Dallas have to offer, this should be the goal.
